
Third, a 6.5% growth rate is needed to achieve the employment objective. All efforts to keep the economy growing at an appropriate rate and to promote economic development are for nothing more than to address the problems which are of most concern to the public.
Fourth, this rate of growth is conducive to fostering healthy public expectations. Facing complex and volatile situations at home and abroad in 2017, we need to provide guidance to all sectors of society so as to focus efforts on improving the quality and benefits of development and promoting structural improvement and upgrading, ensure a proactive response to the impact arising from various uncertainties, and create a favorable environment for supply-side structural reform.
Figure 9. GDP and Growth Rate
-- Overall stable employment
Over 11 million new urban jobs will be created, 1 million more than the projection for 2016, and the registered urban unemployment rate should stay within 4.5%. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account:
First, employment pressure is mounting. About 15 million new workers will enter the job market in 2017, and there will also be a slightly larger number of laid-off workers that need to be reemployed in other industries due to the scaling-down of overcapacity; on the other hand, we will see jobs opening up in urban areas as a result of retirements. Taking these factors into consideration, we need to create around 11 million new urban jobs this year.
Second, employment capacity continues to increase. Due to adjustments in the structure of industry, particularly in terms of entrepreneurship and innovation and the development of the service sector, China's employment elasticity has risen considerably. A growth rate of around 6.5% should ensure that we fulfill our employment target and will allow us to work toward exceeding it.
Third, we need to ensure increases in personal income are basically in step with economic growth. These objectives are a reflection of the Party and government's vision of people-centered development as well as the governance principle that the people's wellbeing comes first and ensuring employment is a top priority. They are also conducive to ensuring stable public expectations and strengthening people's confidence in development.
-- Overall stable prices
The CPI is projected to increase by around 3%. In setting this objective, we have taken the following into account:
First, the carryover effect from the CPI increase in 2016 will be 0.6%, which is basically the same as that of the year before.
Second, the producer price index (PPI) shifted from negative to positive territory in September 2016 and has remained there ever since, and the deflationary pressure on manufacturing has eased to some extent. However, as the effects of the PPI increase are transmitted to downstream industries and toward end consumption, and as the prices of imported goods and international commodity prices rise, new factors will emerge to push up prices.
Third, such a CPI increase leaves us with room to undertake price reform.
-- A basic balance in international payments
We will continue to promote a steady rise in the trade of goods, rapid growth in the trade of services, stability in the use of foreign investment, and the healthy development of outbound investment. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account:
First, a turnaround in global economic and trade growth is unlikely in the short term. However, as the policy for promoting steady growth and structural adjustment in foreign trade continues to have an effect, the volume of trade in goods is expected to pick up again.
Second, as the export of high-value-added services such as telecommunications, computers, and information continues to increase rapidly, the structure of trade in services will improve.
Third, significant efforts will be made to create a fair, transparent, and predictable law-based market environment so as to ensure foreign investment remains stable and improves in quality.
Fourth, outbound investment will be robust. In order to avoid irrational investment which may give rise to operational or debt risks, growth in this area should be promoted in an orderly and prudent manner.
-- Improved quality and benefits in development
The contribution of consumption to economic growth will increase. The foundation of agriculture will be further strengthened; solid progress will be made in cutting overcapacity; the development of emerging strategic industries will be accelerated; and increases in the contribution of the value-added of the service sector to GDP will be sustained. More will be spent on research and development and there will be an increase in the contribution of scientific and technological progress to economic growth. Energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by at least 3.4%, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be cut by 4.0%, reductions in the emissions of major pollutants will continue, and air and water quality will be further improved. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account:
We need to put into practice the philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development; see that industries are transformed and upgraded, that their quality and performance improves, and that the quality of all products and services increases; and ensure that energy conservation, environmental protection, and ecological improvement efforts are strengthened. These objectives are in line with the efforts to advance supply-side structural reform, and can help to create new growth areas, increase the potential for economic growth, and ensure the economy maintains a medium-high growth rate and moves toward the medium-high end.
Figure 10. Contribution to GDP by the Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary Industries
-- Improvements in living standards
The number of people living in poverty in rural areas will be reduced by at least 10 million, and 3.4 million people will be relocated from inhospitable areas so as to help them shake off poverty. The percentage of registered urban residents will increase by more than 1 percentage point. Urban residency will be granted to an additional 13 million people with rural household registration living in urban areas and other permanent urban residents. Access to basic public services such as education, health, and culture will become more equitable. The retention rate of compulsory education and the gross enrollment ratio for senior secondary education will continue to rise. The social security system will be further improved with more beneficiaries receiving coverage and an appropriate increase in benefits. Per capita government subsidies for basic medical insurance for rural and non-working urban residents will increase to 450 yuan, while the level of financing for the major disease insurance scheme will also be raised. The natural population growth rate will be about 7.5 thousandths. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account:
We must fully implement our vision of people-centered development and work for further progress in ensuring that the Chinese people enjoy the rights to education, employment, medical treatment, old-age care, and housing.
Figure 11. Urban and Rural Personal Income: Increases and Comparisons
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