Hong Kong set for 3rd year of positive GDP growth: official

Hong Kong's economy is on track to post a third consecutive year of growth and is expected to expand further next year, while upcoming labor market figures are likely to show steady conditions, Paul Chan Mo-po, financial secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), said in a blog post on Sunday.

Hong Kong's economy has continued to improve this year, with local GDP posing positive growth for 11 consecutive quarters. The city's real GDP expanded by 3.8 percent in the third quarter, the strongest quarterly performance in 18 months, supported by steady gains in exports, consumption and investment, Chan said.

With interest rates trending lower and China-US trade tensions easing now, the HKSAR government holds a cautiously optimistic view of fourth-quarter prospects and has revised its full-year 2025 growth forecast up to 3.2 percent, above the earlier 2-3 percent range. If realized, this would mark the third straight year of post-pandemic GDP expansion, according to Chan.

During the first half of this year, the US' unilateral tariffs brought significant external pressure and uncertainty. Even so, Hong Kong maintained its free port policy and responded with a set of coherent and predictable measures. With strong support from the central government and joint efforts across the city, Hong Kong managed to make solid progress, he said.

According to Chan, Hong Kong's goods exports expanded by 11.3 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, led by strong shipments to the Chinese mainland and ASEAN, which rose 14.6 percent and 27.1 percent, respectively. This reflects both favorable conditions and years of groundwork, from expanding Hong Kong's network of trading partners to helping the mainland-based firms "go global" and strengthening the city's role as a two-way platform and a key node in deepening Asia-Pacific economic integration.

Improvement across multiple sectors, together with a 12-percent growth in visitor arrivals to 41 million in the first 10 months, has lifted sentiment in Hong Kong's catering and retail industries.

Private consumption in Hong Kong rose by 2.1 percent in the third quarter. With the broader economy strengthening and market expectations turning positive, labor market data which will be released on Tuesday are likely to show steady conditions, Chan said.

Hong Kong's GDP is expected to expand further in 2026. Global institutions forecast moderate growth in the global economy next year, with the Chinese mainland and the whole Asia as key drivers, Chan noted.

Hong Kong's continued GDP growth is supported by recovering private consumption, the lift from mega events, a steadier property and equity market, and sustained capital inflows. High value-added tourism and an active capital market, including strong mainland listings, have reinforced economic momentum, Liang Haiming is chairman of the China Silk Road iValley Research Institute, and dean of Hainan University Belt and Road Research Institute told the Global Times.

Emerging industries are expanding, traditional sectors are upgrading, and construction projects are progressing, driving investment and employment. These developments underline Hong Kong's economic resilience and its capacity to sustain broad-based growth despite external uncertainties, Liang said.