Chinese market provides stability for Indian trade amid US tariffs

India's exports to China rose by about 22 percent year-on-year in the first half of the 2025-26 fiscal year - from April to September 2025 - the Hindustan Times reported on Sunday, citing Indian government data. The increase offers a telling glimpse into the evolving landscape of Asian trade, as exporters recalibrate in response to the aftershocks of US tariffs.

Experts cited by the Hindustan Times noted that Indian exporters have diversified some of their trade to different destinations in the wake of the US tariffs. This development highlights the adaptability of Indian exporters and also the sustained potential of the vast China market. As China continues to expand high-level opening-up and uphold multilateral free trade, its economy plays an increasingly stabilizing role and makes important contributions to regional and global trade.

China's market remains large and increasingly sophisticated, with steady demand for a broad range of traded goods. Reportedly, India's export growth to China has been supported by items such as telephone sets, shrimps, aluminum and capsicum, covering both agricultural and industrial sectors.

During a press conference on Friday, China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao stated that China aims to promote the balanced development of imports and exports and to intensify efforts to expand imports, in order to meet the needs of industrial upgrading as well as people's aspirations for a better life.

In recent years, China has taken concrete steps to steadily expand imports. For instance, the 8th China International Import Expo is scheduled to be held in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, and is expected to serve as an accessible channel for foreign products to enter the Chinese market.

Particularly noteworthy, according to the Hindustan Times, exports of parts of telephone sets surged by 162 percent year-on-year to $467.65 million in first half of fiscal 2025-26. The sharp increase offers a compelling lens through which to examine the China-India manufacturing supply chain. As India's related industry continues to mature, it remains to be seen whether closer industrial collaboration might emerge between India's developing mobile sector and China's established manufacturing base.

According to Chinese customs data, bilateral trade between India and China grew by 10.9 percent in the first nine months of this year. The Hindustan Times reported that after imposition of high tariffs by the US on Indian goods from August, India's exports to China have seen a 34 percent jump to $1.47 billion as against $1.09 billion in September 2024. India's growing exports to China following US tariffs highlight the Chinese market's role as a stabilizing force for India's trade.

India's expanding industrial and consumer base draws on Chinese products, while China benefits from access to goods produced in India. The economic logic underpinning this relationship points to a pragmatic foundation for continued growth.

Xu Feihong, Chinese Ambassador to India, published an article in The Hindu on September 11, in which he emphasized that China and India should further expand exchanges and cooperation. He argued that the two countries should focus on development, which is their biggest common denominator, promote mutual support and success, and better facilitate trade and investment flows.

The recent growth in bilateral trade has created tangible opportunities for both economies, highlighting the potential for further expansion. While current trends are encouraging, realizing the full promise of China-India trade will require careful consideration of how to deepen commercial ties, enhance mutual benefits, and, in particular, bolster the confidence of businesses on both sides amid an increasingly complex global environment.

A thoughtful approach to fostering bilateral trade could help the two countries - and the wider regional economy - to achieve more stable and sustainable development. Strategic coordination and targeted policy measures will be essential in unlocking the untapped potential of economic cooperation, ensuring that the China-India trade relationship continues to evolve in a mutually beneficial direction.