IMF raises global growth forecast to 3.2 pct in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (2nd L) speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

NEW YORK, Oct. 14 (Xinhua) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said.

According to the report, advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.6 percent in 2025, while emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow by 4.2 percent -- both 0.1 percentage point higher than previously projected.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blog post that the increase in U.S. tariffs and its effect have been "smaller than expected so far." But given that the effective tariff rate remains high and trade tensions continue, with other factors simultaneously at play, it would be premature and incorrect to claim that the tariff surge has had no impact on global growth, he wrote.

The report also projects the world economy to grow 3.1 percent in 2026, the same as the July forecast.

However, it pointed out that the tariff shock is further dimming growth prospects, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

"We expect a slowdown in the second half of this year, with only a partial recovery in 2026," Gourinchas wrote.

The IMF suggests that resolving policy uncertainty, raising total factor productivity through artificial intelligence (AI), and establishing a pragmatic and adaptive multilateral system that fosters cooperation can help meet economic challenges.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (C) speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (2nd L) speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (2nd L) speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (L) presents the latest World Economic Outlook at a press briefing of in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (2nd L) speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (C) speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (2nd L) speaks at a press briefing on World Economic Outlook in Washington, D.C., the United States, Oct. 14, 2025. IMF on Tuesday raised its global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the July forecast, the latest World Economic Outlook report said. (Xinhua/Li Rui)